Major Demographic Changes Will Impact K-12 and Higher Education in South, Report Says

The number of Hispanic public high school graduates in 2008 in SREB states is projected to more than double by 2022, a higher rate of increase than in the nation, according to a report released today by the Denver-based Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, SREB’s counterpart for higher education in the West.

The report, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022, shows that many SREB states will see far greater proportions of Hispanic high school graduates and prospective students in colleges and career preparation in the coming years. (See the data chart below.)

"This report shows the demographic challenges the region will face now and in the years to come. States need to focus more attention on helping all students achieve at high levels, graduate from high school and continue their learning in college and career preparation — even as the population grows more diverse and many students come from traditionally undereducated families," SREB President Dave Spence said, reacting to the report.

The report projects that the number of Hispanic students enrolled in public schools in grades one through 12 will continue to rise in the 16 SREB states, from 2.2 million in 2001 to 3.8 million in 2011. High school enrollment of Hispanic students in the region will more than triple, from 596,000 in the 2001 school year to more than 1.7 million by 2019. In most SREB states, the proportions of white students and black students will drop substantially.

SREB uses data from this report to update its state-by-state reports on how each SREB state is progressing on some of the SREB Challenge to Lead Goals for Education, which were approved by a special commission of the region’s leaders in 2002. SREB will release 2008 state-by-state progress reports this summer. The current reports from 2006 are available online at www.sreb.org.

Many SREB states have seen major increases in the college enrollment of students in racial/ethnic minority groups, especially black and Hispanic students. States need to help more students from these traditionally undereducated groups finish college degrees and career certificates to continue the region’s progress in raising education levels. For more details on college enrollment and graduation rates, see the SREB Fact Book on Higher Education and state-by-state data reports on higher education, at www.sreb.org.

According to the report, the rise in the numbers of Hispanic high school graduates will contribute to an overall gain in graduates across the region. Three SREB states will see "explosive growth" of greater than 20 percent in the overall number of high school graduates through 2022: Florida, Georgia and Texas. Two SREB states will see "rapid expansion" in the number of high school graduates: Arkansas and North Carolina.

Three SREB states will see some expansion in the overall number of graduates through 2022: Alabama, Delaware and Virginia. Six SREB states will see relatively stable numbers of high school graduates: Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee. Louisiana and West Virginia will see lower numbers of high school graduates because of population trends, according to the report.

Here’s an SREB summary of the U.S., SREB region and each SREB state’s projected increase in Hispanic public high school graduates from the current school year compared with the estimate for the 2022 school year — which is the year many current 4-year-olds will graduate from high school. The full report is available online at www.wiche.edu. For more information on how these changes will affect SREB states or for interviews on this topic, contact SREB Communications.

• U.S.: 465,480 for 2008 and 780,268 for 2022 (or 1.7 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• SREB: 160,344 for 2008 and 376,161 for 2022 (or 2.3 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• AL: 658 for 2008 and 5,540 for 2022 (or 8.4 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• AR: 1,506 for 2008 and 8,786 for 2022 (or 5.8 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• DE: 430 for 2008 and 1,763 for 2022 (or 4.1 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• FL: 34,949 for 2008 and 71,448 for 2022 (or 2 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• GA: 3,942 for 2008 and 24,566 for 2022 (or 6.2 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• KY: 785 for 2008 and 6,953 for 2022 (or 8.9 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• LA: 534 for 2008 and 935 for 2022 (or 1.8 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• MD: 3,579 for 2008 and 13,179 for 2022 (or 3.7 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• MS: 240 for 2008 and 1,807 for 2022 (or 7.5 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• NC: 4,483 for 2008 and 28,340 for 2022 (or 6.3 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• OK: 2,457 for 2008 and 7,710 for 2022 (or 3.1 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• SC: 1,019 for 2008 and 9,204 for 2022 (or 9 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• TN: 1,356 for 2008 and 13,407 for 2022 (or 9.9 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• TX: 99,741 for 2008 and 164,269 for 2022 (or 1.6 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• VA: 4,525 for 2008 and 17,547 for 2022 (or 3.9 more graduates for every one in 2008)
• WV: 140 for 2008 and 707 for 2022 (or 5.1 more graduates for every one in 2008)

SREB, a nonprofit and nonpartisan organization based in Atlanta, Georgia, advises state education leaders on improving education. SREB was created in 1948 by Southern governors and legislatures to help leaders in education and government work cooperatively to advance education and improve the social and economic life of the region. SREB has 16 member states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Each is represented by its governor and four gubernatorial appointees.